Scenarios of low-carbon economy
The Institute of Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI), and for Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN) presented the results of their research "Pathways to deep decarbonization", prepared for the UN climate conference in December 2015. The study presents various scenarios and analysis of technological ways to reduce the carbon intensity of economies by 2050 and additional benefits of transition to low-carbon economy.
Possible decarbonization of the Russian economy
The analysis of situation in Russia considered five models of decarbonization of the economy, including different versions of the energy mix (depending on the level of nuclear and hydropower and use of technologies for carbon sequestration). The main conclusion says that Russia may reduce the GDP energy intensity by 73% and the carbon intensity of electric power by 98% while increasing the share of electric power in transport, housing and production sector from 14% to 30%. These measures will reduce total greenhouse gas emissions in Russia by 87% of 2010 level.
According to the research, the transition to a low-carbon development and support of renewable energy sources will ensure the stability of the economy to external shocks and fluctuations in the global market. The low-carbon development scenario will help to increase GDP by 162%, up to $ 4.9 billion (in prices of 2010), and per capita - by 210%, from $ 13,000 to $ 41,000. The shift to the economic structure and investments will ensure additional 3% of highly skilled jobs in new sectors of the economy annually.
These objectives require about $ 200-250 billion of investments (prices of 2010), what is 10-15% more than the current scenarios, but would save $ 30-50 billion in energy costs. The investments in the power sector in 2030 should exceed the 2010 level by 60%, more than 80% of them should be allocated in renewable energy (by 2050 - $ 33 billion and 75% respectively).